Rampaging Reform have stormed to a 12-point lead over Labour, a new poll suggests. Nigel Farage’s light blue army, with ranks recently swelled by defecting sitting and former Tory MPs, are also surging ahead of their dark blue right-of-centre rivals the Conservatives by 15 points.

The polling will make grim reading for both Labour and the Conservatives, with Sir Keir Starmer rumoured to be fighting off a leadership challenge and Kemi Badenoch still reeling from the high-profile defection of her Shadow Cabinet minister Robert Jenrick.

Reform Opens 12-Point Lead Over Labour as Conservative Support Falls

Reform UK has opened a 12-point lead over Labour in a major opinion poll, according to research published by Ipsos. The figures show a significant shift in voting intentions, with Reform on 34 per cent, Labour on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 14 per cent.

The poll was conducted between September 11 and 17, 2025, among 1,157 British adults. It provides a snapshot of public opinion at that point rather than a prediction of a future election result. Ipsos also cautioned that polling estimates are subject to a margin of error and that its methodology had recently changed.

Nevertheless, the figures attracted considerable attention because they placed Reform substantially ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives and showed particularly low levels of support for the two traditional governing parties.

Reform at 34 Per Cent

According to Ipsos, Reform UK recorded 34 per cent support in the September poll, unchanged from the organisation’s previous June survey.

Labour, meanwhile, fell three points to 22 per cent. The Conservatives slipped one point to 14 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats were on 12 per cent, while the Green Party also recorded 12 per cent. Other parties accounted for the remaining six per cent.

The result gave Reform a 12-point advantage over Labour.

Ipsos noted that Labour’s 22 per cent represented its lowest vote-intention figure in the organisation’s polling since June 2009. The Conservatives’ 14 per cent was also notable, as Ipsos said it was the lowest share it had recorded for the party since its regular Political Monitor series began in 1976.

The figures therefore showed weakness for both of Britain’s traditional major parties, although the implications of a single poll remain limited.

Conservative Voters Moving Towards Reform

One of the most significant findings concerned the movement of former Conservative voters.

Ipsos reported that Reform was retaining around nine in ten of the people who had voted for it in the 2024 general election. At the same time, the party was attracting support from voters who had previously backed other parties.

The Conservatives appeared particularly vulnerable.

According to Ipsos, 39 per cent of people who voted Conservative in 2024 said they would now vote for Reform UK. By comparison, only 47 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters remained committed to the Conservatives in the September poll.

This movement is important because Reform’s performance cannot simply be explained by winning support from people who previously did not vote.

A substantial part of its support was coming from voters who had previously backed the Conservative Party.

The figures suggested that the competition on the right of British politics was becoming an increasingly important factor in the distribution of votes.

Labour Also Losing Support

Labour was facing pressure from more than one direction.

Ipsos found that around half of Labour’s 2024 voters remained with the party. Among those who had voted Labour at the general election, 13 per cent said they would now vote Reform UK.

Another 10 per cent said they would support the Liberal Democrats, while a further 10 per cent said they would vote Green.

This meant Labour was losing support to parties positioned both to its left and right.

The pattern was different among demographic groups.

Labour remained relatively strong among younger voters, people with university degrees and those in higher socioeconomic groups. Ipsos reported that Labour received 29 per cent among people aged 18 to 34, 29 per cent among the AB socioeconomic group and 37 per cent among graduates.

Reform, by contrast, performed particularly strongly among people aged 50 and over, non-graduates and the C2DE socioeconomic groups.

These differences demonstrate that the headline national figure does not describe a uniform shift across the British electorate.

Immigration and Broader Dissatisfaction

Ipsos identified several factors that could help explain Reform’s strong position.

Senior director Gideon Skinner said Reform’s lead reflected continuing concern about immigration as well as broader dissatisfaction with the state of the country. He said these concerns were helping Reform present itself as a party offering change.

However, the polling also showed that Reform’s strong voting intention did not necessarily translate into widespread enthusiasm for its leader.

Nigel Farage received a satisfaction rating of 34 per cent, while 53 per cent said they were dissatisfied with the way he was doing his job as leader of Reform UK.

Among Reform supporters themselves, however, 89 per cent said they were satisfied with Farage’s performance.

This distinction is significant. A party can perform strongly in voting-intention questions while its leader remains unpopular among voters outside the party’s core support.

Starmer’s Ratings Reach a Low Point

The poll also recorded extremely low satisfaction with Labour leader Keir Starmer.

Only 13 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the way Starmer was performing as prime minister, while 79 per cent said they were dissatisfied.

Ipsos described the resulting net satisfaction score of minus 66 as the lowest it had recorded for a British prime minister since the question was first asked in 1977.

Rachel Reeves also recorded a difficult result.

Only 13 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with her performance as chancellor, compared with 69 per cent who were dissatisfied. Her net rating was therefore minus 56.

Government satisfaction was similarly low. Just 12 per cent said they were satisfied with the way the government was running the country, while 82 per cent were dissatisfied.

These figures placed considerable pressure on Labour ahead of its party conference and the government’s upcoming political challenges.

Conservative Leadership Under Pressure

The Conservatives also faced difficulties in the Ipsos survey.

Kemi Badenoch, then Conservative leader, recorded 14 per cent satisfaction compared with 61 per cent dissatisfaction, producing a net rating of minus 47.

Only 33 per cent of Conservative supporters said they were satisfied with her performance.

The party’s 14 per cent voting intention figure was particularly significant because Ipsos described it as its lowest-ever recorded share for the Conservatives in its regular Political Monitor series.

The figures suggested that the Conservatives were not simply competing with Labour for opposition voters. They were also facing a challenge from Reform among voters who had traditionally supported the Conservative Party.

Farage and the Question of Prime Minister

The survey also asked respondents which of the three main party leaders they considered the most capable of serving as prime minister.

Farage received 25 per cent, compared with 19 per cent for Starmer and nine per cent for Badenoch.

However, Ipsos emphasised that 47 per cent did not choose any of the three.

This is an important qualification to the headline result.

Although Farage led the individual figures in this question, nearly half of respondents did not select any of the three leaders. The result therefore did not demonstrate universal confidence in Reform’s leader.

Among Reform supporters, 77 per cent selected Farage. Among Labour supporters, 63 per cent selected Starmer, while 44 per cent of Conservative supporters selected Badenoch.

A Changing Electoral Landscape

The September figures illustrated how Britain’s political landscape had become increasingly fragmented.

Labour remained the governing party, but its support was significantly below the level recorded at the 2024 general election.

The Conservatives were also struggling to maintain their traditional support base, while Reform was attracting voters from both major parties.

The Liberal Democrats and Greens also held meaningful shares of the vote in the Ipsos survey.

Such fragmentation can make the interpretation of national polling more complicated.

A party’s percentage of the national vote does not automatically translate into a corresponding number of parliamentary seats because Britain’s general elections are fought in individual constituencies under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

Regional patterns of support can therefore matter as much as national vote share when assessing the potential parliamentary consequences of polling.

Polling Is a Snapshot, Not an Election Result

The Ipsos figures should also be interpreted within the limitations of opinion polling.

The survey involved 1,157 British adults and was conducted over a seven-day period in September 2025. Ipsos said there was a 90 per cent chance that the true value of a party’s support would fall within four percentage points of the estimate, based on the historical record of polls around recent general elections.

The pollster also introduced a new methodology in June 2025, using an online random-probability panel and a revised weighting system.

Ipsos specifically advised caution when comparing results produced under the new methodology with older polling conducted using different methods.

Consequently, the 12-point gap should be regarded as a measurement of opinion during the fieldwork period rather than evidence of a guaranteed future election outcome.

What the Figures Show

Taken together, the results reveal several important trends.

First, Reform was attracting substantial support from voters who had previously backed the Conservatives.

Second, Labour was losing support to several competing parties, including Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

Third, both Starmer and Badenoch faced low satisfaction ratings among the wider electorate.

Fourth, despite Reform’s strong voting-intention figure, Farage’s satisfaction rating remained negative among the public as a whole.

The figures therefore present a more complicated picture than the headline “12-point lead” alone might suggest.

Conclusion

The September 2025 Ipsos poll placed Reform UK on 34 per cent, 12 points ahead of Labour on 22 per cent, while the Conservatives stood at 14 per cent.

The figures highlighted the changing balance between Britain’s political parties and the extent to which Reform was drawing support from former Conservative voters. Labour was also losing voters to several directions, while its leadership and government satisfaction ratings were particularly low.

At the same time, the survey did not constitute an election forecast. It represented the views of a representative sample of British adults during a specific period in September 2025, and Ipsos itself highlighted methodological changes and the normal uncertainty associated with polling.

The results nevertheless provided a detailed snapshot of a British electorate in which traditional party loyalties were under considerable pressure. Reform’s strong position, Labour’s reduced support and the Conservatives’ historically low figure illustrated the extent of political competition outside the traditional two-party pattern.

Whether those attitudes would persist over the longer term was a separate question. Subsequent polling could show whether the September figures represented a lasting change or a temporary moment in a rapidly evolving political landscape.