UK Support for Rejoining EU Reaches Record 61%, Polling Expert Sir John Curtice Warns Labour
Support for Britain rejoining the European Union has reached its highest sustained level since the 2016 Brexit referendum, but political experts caution that a future campaign would face sharp electoral hurdles.
Polling data compiled by veteran analyst Sir John Curtice shows that an average of recent surveys puts the rejoin side at 61 per cent among decided voters.
The remaining 39 per cent favor staying outside the bloc, giving the pro-rejoin movement a commanding 22-point advantage.
The figures mark a striking reversal from the original 52-48 vote that initiated Britain’s departure nearly a decade ago.
Yet, as public sentiment shifts, Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government faces mounting pressure over how to handle its growing European ambitions without igniting old political divisions.
The Demographic Shift Driving the Rejoin Lead
The widening gap in polling is largely the result of generational change rather than mass conversions among original voters.
Data indicates that roughly 18 per cent of those who backed Leave in 2016 now support rejoining, while about 11 per cent of former Remain voters have moved in the opposite direction.
Instead, the electorate itself has transformed.
A decade of younger citizens reaching voting age has introduced a demographic that overwhelmingly favors EU membership.
Simultaneously, older generations, who formed the bedrock of the Leave vote, have seen natural attrition.
Non-voters from the original referendum who have since engaged with the political process also lean heavily toward rejoining, altering the baseline of the British electorate.
Why the 61% Lead Might Be Vulnerable
Despite the substantial polling lead, Curtice warns that headline figures would likely narrow once a real electoral campaign began.
A future referendum would not simply replicate the binary choice of 2016.
Britain previously held specific exemptions, including staying out of the euro and the Schengen travel area.
Re-entering the bloc would require fresh negotiations with Brussels, and terms could differ significantly from past arrangements.
Opponents would likely center their campaigns on thorny issues such as financial contributions, freedom of movement, and adoption of the single currency.
While current respondents express support for rejoining in principle, a formal negotiation process would introduce complex economic and sovereignty questions that have yet to be tested under campaign scrutiny.
Public Perception of Brexit’s Economic Impact
The growing appetite for closer European ties coincides with increasingly negative assessments of Brexit’s practical consequences.
Research from the National Centre for Social Research indicates that 69 per cent of the public believes Britain’s economy is worse off as a result of leaving the EU.
Only 9 per cent think the economy has benefited.
Even among original Leave voters, 38 per cent now agree that the economic outcome has been negative, a stark contrast to pre-referendum expectations.
Public anxiety has also shifted regarding immigration, with 54 per cent saying Brexit increased overall immigration levels rather than reducing them.
However, analysts note that economic dissatisfaction remains a far stronger driver of changing voting intentions than immigration concerns, while national sovereignty remains a powerful motivator for remaining outside the bloc.
Labour’s Balancing Act on the European Reset
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pursued a strategy of closer cooperation with Brussels while explicitly ruling out a return to the EU, the single market, or the customs union.
His government has focused on practical adjustments, such as reducing trade barriers for food and drink exports and negotiating youth mobility frameworks.
Curtice argues that this cautious approach leaves the administration politically vulnerable.
He warned that without active leadership defending these changes, figures like Nigel Reform leader and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will successfully frame any closer ties as an attempt to undermine the 2016 result.
Balancing public demand for stronger European cooperation with the risk of reviving bitter partisan battles remains one of Labour’s most delicate policy challenges.
What Happens Next
As polling consistently shows a strong majority favoring rejoining, the political debate is unlikely to fade.
While Labour maintains its opposition to reopening membership negotiations, shifting demographics and deteriorating economic perceptions of Brexit continue to keep the question alive in Westminster.
Whether the government can successfully navigate its practical reset without triggering a broader constitutional confrontation will depend heavily on how public opinion evolves as economic pressures persist.
How do you think the British government should balance the growing public support for closer European ties with the commitments made after the 2016 referendum?