New state pension triple lock threat as Andy Burnham plots shock decision – gone by Spring

It looks like state pensioners will get a pay rise of at least 3.9% from April next year, based on latest earnings data. There is still a slim chance of a bigger increase if September’s inflation figure comes in higher. We’ve just learned that inflation climbed to 3.1% in August and could climb higher in September, particularly with energy prices rising. But it would be a surprise if it overtook wages. So 3.9% looks like the likely result. That would lift the full new state pension by around £488 to just over £13,036 a year.

The payout is nonetheless lower than the 4.8% increase pensioners got this year. It is also well below the post-pandemic increases of 10.1% in 2023, driven by inflation, and 8.5% in 2024, based on earnings. The triple lock has transformed the state pension since it was introduced in 2011. The Institute for Fiscal Studies calculates the full new state pension is now worth around £1,500 a year more than it would have been if it had simply risen with average earnings. But now a new and unexpected threat is looming.

The mechanism was introduced because pensioners had spent decades watching their incomes fall behind working households. It was designed to stop that and it’s worked. But an army of critics say it is no longer affordable. The Institute for Fiscal Studies calculates that state pension spending will reach £154billion this year and is already around £16billion a year higher than it would have been if pensions had risen with earnings since 2010.

The Resolution Foundation has called for the triple lock to be scrapped in its current form, while the British Chambers of Commerce has also warned about its cost. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is under pressure as he tries to balance the books, fund his spending promises and find money for defence spending.

His ally Jim O’Neill, a former Goldman Sachs banker, has already called for the triple lock to go. Labour has pledged to protect it for the lifetime of this Parliament. Most of us assumed the next election will be in 2029. But there’s growing speculation that Burnham could call a snap general election in the Spring. If he does, Labour’s triple lock pledge could expire sooner in just a matter of months.

The triple lock will then become a huge election issue and there is no guarantee it will carry over into the next Parliament. In that scenario, it may not survive beyond the Spring. Especially if a financial crisis strikes which could give politicians the excuse they need.

This would be a disaster. Yes, some pensioners are comfortable. But that’s because they have private pensions, savings or other assets. It isn’t because the state pension is generous, it’s one of the lowest in Europe.

Millions are struggling with everyday bills, and winter will be tough with food and energy costs expected to soar. Pensioners believe they deserve stronger protection after paying into the system all their working lives.

Even this year’s 3.9% increase may not look so generous in April, if inflation has rocketed by then. There are alternatives. A double lock linked to earnings or working-age benefits is being floated. Or a system linked to average earnings over time.

But pensioners aren’t interested in complicated formulas. They want to know whether the promise made to them is safe.

The triple lock has done brilliant work but the threats are growing. Every time the state pension rises, out come the critics. But any politician thinking of axing it should remember what happened when Rachel Reeves cut the winter fuel payment.

The backlash shattered Sir Keir Starmer‘s Labour government almost before it began. The triple lock must stay.