Reform UK has emerged as a serious new challenger to Labour in the race for Mayor of London, according to a striking new poll that puts the party ahead of the Conservatives. The development marks an important change in the political landscape of the capital and could make the 2028 mayoral election considerably more competitive.
A Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London puts Labour on 33 per cent, Reform UK on 20 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent. The Green Party is also a significant force, with 17 per cent.
The figures do not mean that Reform is on course to defeat Sadiq Khan. Labour remains comfortably ahead in the poll. But they do demonstrate that the political battle for second place has changed, with Reform now positioned ahead of the Conservatives and presenting itself as a potential alternative for voters dissatisfied with the established parties.
For Khan, who has been Mayor of London since 2016, the development comes at an interesting moment. He has already won three elections and is considering whether to seek an unprecedented fourth term in 2028. A July Savanta poll also showed Labour leading on 33 per cent, although Reform and the Conservatives were then level on 18 per cent.
The latest figures suggest that Reform’s support has strengthened relative to the Conservatives. That matters because London’s mayoral election is no longer simply a straightforward contest between Labour and the Tories. Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are all competing for voters who may previously have concentrated their support on the two largest parties.
Reform’s rise is particularly significant in outer London. Earlier polling and political analysis suggested that the party could make substantial gains in several outer-London boroughs, including Bexley, Bromley and Havering. Reform subsequently won control of Havering at the May 2026 local elections, demonstrating that its support in parts of the capital is not merely theoretical.
The party’s mayoral candidate, Laila Cunningham, now has an opportunity to turn that momentum into a serious campaign. Reform’s challenge will be persuading Londoners that it can offer credible solutions to the capital’s problems rather than simply acting as a protest vehicle.
Those problems are substantial.
Crime and policing are likely to be central issues. London’s mayor has significant responsibilities for policing through the Metropolitan Police and the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime. Voters therefore have a direct interest in the mayor’s record on crime, neighbourhood policing and public safety.
Recent YouGov polling provides some difficult figures for Khan. Forty-two per cent of Londoners said he was doing well as mayor, compared with 47 per cent who said he was doing badly. The survey found particularly negative views of his performance on crime and housing.
Housing is another major battleground. London remains one of the world’s most expensive cities, and the cost of buying or renting a home is a major concern for many residents. Khan has made housing construction and affordable homes central parts of his political agenda, but critics argue that the capital still has a severe affordability problem.
Reform can use that dissatisfaction to argue that established political parties have failed to deliver sufficient change.
Transport will also be important. London’s public transport network remains essential to the city’s economy, but passengers continue to face concerns about fares, reliability and the future of services. The mayor has substantial influence over Transport for London, making transport policy one of the clearest ways voters judge City Hall.
The election is still almost two years away, however, and today’s polling should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final result. Campaigns can change dramatically once candidates begin appearing regularly in the media and voters start paying closer attention.
The identity of Labour’s candidate could also be crucial.
Khan has not yet definitively confirmed that he will seek another term. A separate YouGov survey found that 56 per cent of Londoners believed he should step aside in favour of a new Labour candidate.
If Khan remains the candidate, Reform will be able to campaign against a familiar political figure who has been in office for more than a decade. If Labour chooses someone new, the party could potentially argue that voters have an opportunity to retain Labour’s policies while moving beyond Khan’s personal record.
The Conservatives face perhaps the most immediate strategic problem. Once London’s principal opposition force, the party now risks being squeezed between Labour and Reform on one side and the Greens and Liberal Democrats on the other.
The Conservatives need to persuade voters that they remain the strongest credible alternative to Labour. Reform’s second-place position in the latest poll makes that task considerably harder.
The Green Party presents a different challenge. Its 17 per cent support demonstrates the strength of progressive alternatives to Labour, particularly in inner London. Earlier analysis of the 2026 local elections found that the Greens were expected to perform strongly in boroughs such as Hackney and Lewisham, while Reform’s strongest gains were anticipated in outer London.
London’s political geography is therefore becoming increasingly fragmented.
Inner London and outer London can have very different political priorities. Voters in central areas may place greater emphasis on environmental policies, housing and public transport, while outer-London residents may focus more heavily on crime, council services, road congestion and the cost of living.
A successful mayoral candidate needs to build a coalition across both parts of the capital.
For Reform, this represents both an opportunity and a challenge. The party’s national support has grown considerably, but London remains a difficult environment for it. The latest polling is encouraging, yet 20 per cent is still far behind Labour’s 33 per cent.
Reform must therefore expand beyond its existing base.
That will require convincing moderate voters that its candidate can run a complex city with millions of residents and a vast public-sector budget. The mayoralty is an executive office, not simply a platform for national political protest.
For Labour, the message from the poll is equally clear: a large lead should not create complacency.
Khan remains ahead, but dissatisfaction with his record could give opponents room to grow. YouGov’s latest research found that nearly half of Londoners believe he is doing badly as mayor, while a majority believe London has become a worse place to live over the past decade.
Those figures give Reform and the Conservatives considerable material for their campaigns.
Nevertheless, Khan has important advantages. He is a well-known political figure, has won three consecutive elections and benefits from Labour’s continuing strength in much of the capital. The July Savanta poll suggested that Labour would still comfortably win the mayoral contest after second preferences were counted.
The electoral system also matters. The London mayoral election uses a supplementary voting system following changes to the voting rules, meaning that candidates must build broad support rather than relying exclusively on a narrow first-choice base.
This could make the distribution of second preferences important if the race becomes closer.
Reform’s rise could therefore have consequences even if the party does not win. A strong Reform campaign could weaken Conservative support, force Labour to defend outer-London constituencies and change the issues dominating the election.
The Conservatives may have to decide whether to attack Reform or concentrate their fire on Khan. Reform, meanwhile, will have to decide how aggressively to challenge the Conservatives for centre-right and anti-establishment voters.
Labour faces its own strategic dilemma. If it focuses heavily on attacking Reform, it could inadvertently reinforce the party’s status as the main challenger. If it ignores Reform, it risks allowing the party to establish itself among voters who are unhappy with City Hall.
The next two years will therefore be crucial.
Londoners will ultimately judge the mayor on practical issues rather than national political headlines. Can the city reduce crime? Can it build enough homes? Can public transport remain affordable and reliable? Can roads be maintained effectively? Can the mayor support economic growth while addressing inequality and environmental concerns?
Those questions will determine whether Khan’s decade in office is viewed as a success or a failure.
For now, however, the polling provides Reform with a significant political boost. The party has overtaken the Conservatives in one of the most closely watched mayoral contests in Britain. That does not make it favourite to win, but it does establish Reform as a serious competitor.
The Conservatives can no longer assume that they are automatically London’s principal opposition force. Labour cannot assume that Khan’s incumbency guarantees an easy victory. And Reform cannot assume that a strong poll will automatically translate into votes.
The 2028 election remains a long way off, and political circumstances can change dramatically. But one conclusion is already becoming difficult to ignore: the old two-party contest for City Hall has been replaced by a much more unpredictable race.
For Sadiq Khan, the latest numbers should serve as a warning. For Reform, they represent an opportunity. And for London voters, they signal that the next mayoral election could offer a much wider choice—and a far more competitive political battle—than many expected.