Blow to Andy Burnham as New PM’s Popularity Takes Hit in New Poll
Andy Burnham has suffered his first significant warning sign since becoming prime minister, with new polling suggesting that the huge popularity boost he enjoyed when entering Downing Street may already be beginning to fade.
The development will be closely watched at Westminster. Burnham arrived in office on 20 July with an unusually strong personal image and quickly established himself as a very different kind of Labour leader from his predecessor, Keir Starmer. His early weeks were dominated by highly visible measures on household costs, transport, public services and regional government. Yet the latest figures suggest that even Burnham’s political honeymoon may have limits.
The warning is particularly important because Burnham’s political strategy depends heavily on his personal appeal. Unlike a conventional prime minister who can rely primarily on the reputation of the governing party, Burnham has built much of his political identity around his image as a down-to-earth, northern politician who understands ordinary voters.
If that image begins to weaken, Labour could find it much harder to maintain the momentum it has gained since his arrival.
A Five-Point Warning
According to recent polling reported this week, Burnham’s net approval rating has suffered a five-point decline. The change is not enough to suggest that the prime minister has suddenly become unpopular, but it is significant because it comes so soon after his arrival in Downing Street.
The timing is crucial.
When Burnham became prime minister, he benefited from a dramatic contrast with Starmer. The former Greater Manchester mayor was widely regarded as warmer, more charismatic and more politically instinctive than his predecessor.
His first days in office were carefully designed to reinforce that image.
He announced measures intended to reduce household costs, promised to restore the £2 bus fare cap and created a new Manchester-based economic operation known as “No 10 North”. The government has also pledged major action on rough sleeping and promised new forms of devolution.
These policies created an immediate sense that something had changed.
But politics is rarely kind to new leaders for long.
The public eventually stops judging a prime minister simply on style and begins asking much harder questions: Can they deliver? Can they pay for their promises? Will the economy improve? Will public services get better? And, perhaps most importantly, do they really understand the problems facing the country?
Those questions are now beginning to confront Burnham.
The Burnham Bounce Was Real
It would be wrong to suggest that the new polling means Burnham’s popularity has collapsed.
In fact, the broader picture remains considerably more positive than the headline might suggest.
YouGov’s August favourability figures show that Burnham’s latest net favourability rating is the strongest recorded for a British prime minister in more than six years.
That is an extraordinary position for a politician who has only recently entered Downing Street.
Other polling has also shown Labour recovering strongly under his leadership. Ipsos recently put Labour three points ahead of Reform UK, while Opinium found Labour maintaining a narrow advantage over Reform.
The change from the final months of the Starmer government is therefore dramatic.
The issue is not that Burnham has suddenly become unpopular.
The issue is that the early surge may not be permanent.
And that distinction could prove extremely important.
Voters Are Starting to Ask Difficult Questions
The first stage of a new prime minister’s popularity is often relatively easy.
Everything is new.
Every announcement attracts attention.
Every speech creates expectations.
Every policy can be presented as evidence of a fresh beginning.
Burnham has benefited enormously from this dynamic.
But the second stage is much more difficult.
Voters begin looking beyond personality and towards performance.
That is where Burnham faces his greatest challenge.
His government has made a remarkable number of promises in a very short period. These include removing VAT from household electricity bills, restoring the £2 bus fare cap, expanding free bus travel for disabled people, cutting business rates for pubs and music venues and committing £442 million to tackling rough sleeping.
Each individual policy may be popular.
Together, however, they raise a much more difficult question:
How is the government going to pay for everything?
That question is already beginning to appear in polling and political analysis. Lord Ashcroft’s recent assessment of the “Burnham bounce” noted that voters were already asking how the government’s promises would be funded.
This could become Burnham’s greatest vulnerability.
The “Man of the People” Image
Burnham’s popularity has always depended heavily on his ability to present himself as an ordinary, approachable politician.
His years as Greater Manchester mayor transformed his political image. He became associated with the north of England, regional inequality and the idea that Westminster had ignored communities outside London.
That identity helped him win his return to Parliament in the Makerfield by-election, where he secured 55 per cent of the vote against Reform UK’s 35 per cent.
But the qualities that work brilliantly for a mayor can become more complicated at national level.
As prime minister, Burnham is no longer simply the champion of Manchester or northern England.
He has to govern the entire United Kingdom.
And that creates a potentially serious weakness.
Recent polling found that only 23 per cent of people believed Burnham would govern for the whole country, according to The Times.
That figure should concern Downing Street.
Burnham’s northern identity is one of his greatest strengths among supporters, but it could become a problem if voters elsewhere begin to believe that his government is primarily designed around Manchester and the north.
The “No 10 North” Gamble
Nothing illustrates this better than Burnham’s decision to establish a new economic operation in Manchester.
The idea is ambitious.
Rather than allowing the Treasury to dominate economic policy from London, Burnham wants Downing Street to take a stronger role in shaping long-term growth while giving regional leaders more control over housing, education and planning.
Supporters believe this could fundamentally change how Britain is governed.
Critics see the possibility of a bureaucratic power struggle.
The Treasury remains responsible for taxation and public spending, meaning that Burnham’s new economic structure will inevitably have to coexist with one of Britain’s most powerful government departments.
If “No 10 North” succeeds, it could become one of the defining innovations of the Burnham government.
If it fails, opponents will portray it as an expensive symbol of Burnham’s obsession with Manchester.
The prime minister therefore has a lot riding on the experiment.
Reform UK Is Still Waiting
Another reason Burnham’s polling matters is the continuing threat from Reform UK.
Nigel Farage’s party has suffered a difficult period since Burnham became prime minister. Labour has moved ahead in several recent polls, while Reform has lost some of the momentum it enjoyed earlier in 2026.
But Reform has not disappeared.
The party remains capable of attracting a substantial share of the national vote, and Farage remains one of the most recognisable political figures in Britain.
This means Burnham cannot afford to become complacent.
A small decline in personal popularity could become politically significant if Reform begins recovering at the same time.
The danger for Labour is that voters who have temporarily returned to the party because of Burnham could leave again if they become disappointed with his government.
The Economy Could Decide Everything
The most important factor in Burnham’s future popularity will probably be the economy.
Popular announcements can only carry a government so far.
Eventually, voters want to know whether their wages are rising, whether bills are falling, whether housing is affordable and whether public services are improving.
Burnham has attempted to make cost-of-living measures one of the defining characteristics of his government. The £2 bus fare proposal and the removal of VAT from household electricity bills are deliberately designed to create visible benefits for ordinary households.
But these measures also create expectations.
If people do not feel substantially better off, the political effect could be very different from what Downing Street hopes.
The government could find itself accused of offering small savings while failing to address deeper structural problems.
That is why the next few months will be crucial.
The Homelessness Promise
Burnham has also attached his personal reputation to a particularly ambitious promise: offering routes off the streets to rough sleepers across England by Christmas.
The government has committed a total of £442 million to the effort, including an additional £102 million announced recently. Burnham has acknowledged, however, that government money alone may not be enough and has called for councils, charities and community groups to work together.
This could become a defining moment.
If Burnham succeeds in reducing rough sleeping significantly, it would strengthen his reputation as a politician who delivers practical results.
If the target proves impossible to achieve, critics will argue that he made a promise designed more for headlines than for reality.
The political lesson is simple: once a prime minister makes a highly specific promise, voters can hold them directly accountable.
His Biggest Problem May Be Expectations
Perhaps the greatest danger facing Burnham is not unpopularity itself.
It is expectation.
He has arrived in Downing Street with enormous expectations because he is perceived as a politician who can do things differently.
His supporters expect him to restore Labour’s connection with working-class voters.
Northern voters expect greater investment outside London.
Progressives expect stronger public services and climate action.
Businesses want economic growth.
Motorists want affordable transport.
Households want lower bills.
Reform voters who are considering returning to Labour want evidence that the political establishment has finally understood their frustrations.
These expectations can pull Burnham in completely different directions.
The prime minister cannot satisfy every group simultaneously.
A Warning From Starmer’s Experience
Burnham should also study what happened to Keir Starmer.
When Starmer entered Downing Street after Labour’s 2024 landslide victory, expectations were high. But his popularity subsequently deteriorated dramatically.
By the time he left office, only 28 per cent of people believed he had done well, while 64 per cent disagreed.
Burnham therefore knows better than most politicians how quickly public enthusiasm can disappear.
His early popularity is valuable.
But it is not permanent.
The challenge is to convert personal appeal into lasting trust.
The Political Battle Ahead
The coming months will therefore be crucial for Burnham.
He must prove that his policies can be implemented without destabilising the public finances.
He must demonstrate that his regional agenda benefits people beyond Manchester.
He must decide how far to go on controversial issues such as North Sea oil and gas.
He must deal with Britain’s prison capacity crisis.
He must address welfare reform without allowing Reform UK to dominate the debate.
And he must deliver on his homelessness promise.
Every one of these challenges can affect public opinion.
That makes the latest polling decline more significant than the five-point figure might initially suggest.
It is an early reminder that the honeymoon is not the same thing as permanent popularity.
Conclusion
Andy Burnham remains in a far stronger political position than Keir Starmer was during the final months of his premiership. Recent polling continues to show Labour performing strongly, and Burnham’s favourability rating remains unusually high for a British prime minister.
But the latest decline in his popularity is an important warning.
The “Burnham bounce” was real, but no prime minister can rely on a bounce forever.
The public will increasingly judge him on results rather than speeches, personality or political symbolism.
His promises on household bills, transport, public services, regional devolution and homelessness could provide the foundation for a remarkably successful premiership if they produce tangible improvements.
But they could also become liabilities if voters conclude that the government has promised more than it can afford to deliver.
The most important question for Burnham is therefore no longer whether people like him.
For the moment, many clearly do.
The question is whether they will still trust him when the difficult decisions arrive.
That is the real test of his premiership—and the latest poll suggests that test may already be beginning.