Andy Burnham is seriously considering going to the country. It could end in chaos.
Andy Burnham is tempted to go the polls – but the outcome is uncertain (Image: Getty)
Rumours are growing that Burnham will call a general election for next May. The PM isn’t content with just being a Messiah, he wants a mandate too. And the 24,927 voters who backed him in the recent Makerfield by-election don’t count as one. By calling a general election, Burnham can take advantage of the fact he’s riding high in the polls. He has another incentive. He’s currently bound by the 2024 Labour manifesto, which limits his ability to raise income tax, National Insurance and VAT. Since nearly all of his plans involve spending billions, that’s a problem.
He has another incentive to gamble. Opposition parties are all over the shop. The Green Party is in disarray as voters wake up to the fact that Zack Polanski shouldn’t be trusted near an electricity socket, let alone a source of real power. This is a man couldn’t even bring himself to support unarmed police putting their lives on the line to stop terrorist knife attacks.
Looking at the right, Burnham is equally encouraged. Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe stretched the limits of decency by refusing to say whether King Charles can be called a white Briton. Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election but Reform polls below Burnham’s resurgent Labour. Kemi Badenoch is impressing as Conservative Party leader, but the Tories remain a sullied brand. Burnham fancies his chances but knows there are dangers in going to the country so quickly.
Keir Starmer was a rubbish PM but his massive landslide gave Labour just over 400 seats. Burnham doesn’t have a cat in hell’s chance of winning that many. So a lot of his MPs will lose their jobs and salaries, and have to find something useful to do instead. Burnham will probably lose even more MPs if he waits until 2029, but at least the troops will pocket a couple more years of pay and pension, while posturing around Westminster demanding higher taxes and bigger benefits.
Yet Burnham may still go for it. He will recall Gordon Brown, who was tempted to call a snap election after replacing Tony Blair as PM in 2007. Brown bottled it, the financial crisis followed and Labour was wiped out in 2010. Burnham doesn’t want to go down as a bottler too.
It makes sense to go for an election while he’s still fresh and thriving, but if he unwittingly opens the door to five years of Nigel Farage, the left will never forgive him.
Election talk risks rattling the UK economy and pound, warns Gary Howes, currency expert at Poundsterling.com. Howes is convinced Burnham will go for an election having kicked of his tenure with “a series of little giveaways that attract glowing headlines”. He argues: “Only a campaigner with a short-term scope does this.”
But he warns it will trigger still more turbulence in a country that’s now had seven prime ministers in 10 years. History shows the pound struggles when political uncertainty is high, as businesses and households stop spending, Howes said.
There’s a bigger worry in my book. Burnham’s gamble risks triggering coalition chaos as the two-party system collapses. A Labour-Lib Dem-Green coalition is the worst-case scenario, as Burnham, Polanski and that rubber-clad Lib Dem bloke outdo each other to tax, spend and rant about Gaza.
That would bring the economy to its knees, crush the pound, light a rocket under borrowing costs and trigger a bond market revolt. Burnham is playing with fire. Given all the risks, he might just decide to stick it out until 2029. It could be safer for all of us