Blow to Andy Burnham as New PM’s Popularity Takes Hit in New Poll
Andy Burnham has suffered his first significant polling setback since becoming Prime Minister, with new figures suggesting that the early enthusiasm surrounding his arrival in Downing Street may already be beginning to fade. The latest survey provides a timely warning for the new Labour leader: winning over voters after a change of leadership can be relatively easy, but maintaining their confidence once the difficult decisions of government begin is a much harder task.
According to the latest polling reported today, Burnham’s net approval rating has fallen by five points to around +11. The decline is not catastrophic, and he remains considerably better regarded than several of his political rivals. Nevertheless, the movement is significant because it comes after a period in which Labour had enjoyed a noticeable boost following Keir Starmer’s departure and Burnham’s rapid transition from Greater Manchester mayor to Prime Minister.
The figures demonstrate that the so-called “Burnham bounce” cannot be taken for granted.
When Burnham entered Downing Street, he brought with him something Labour desperately needed: a sense of optimism. His predecessor had become deeply unpopular, and Labour’s position had deteriorated badly despite winning a large parliamentary majority at the 2024 general election. Burnham’s arrival created the impression of a political reset.
His personal style was also dramatically different. Rather than presenting himself as a cautious technocrat, Burnham attempted to project energy, warmth and confidence. His record as mayor of Greater Manchester gave him a political narrative that was easy to communicate: devolution, transport reform, regional investment and a belief that government should work more closely with local communities.
That helped explain his initial popularity.
An Opinium survey conducted earlier in August found Burnham with a +16 net approval rating, with 37 per cent approving of his performance and 21 per cent disapproving. At that stage, he was the most positively rated political leader tested.
The latest decline therefore represents an important change.
It would be wrong, however, to interpret a five-point fall as evidence that Burnham’s premiership is collapsing. Political approval ratings fluctuate, particularly during the first weeks of a new government. Many voters are still forming their opinions, and relatively small changes can be caused by news events, policy announcements or simply differences between polling samples.
The more important issue is the direction of travel.
Burnham cannot remain permanently in the honeymoon period. As Prime Minister, he now has responsibility for decisions that affect taxation, public spending, immigration, welfare, energy, policing and national security. These are areas where compromise is unavoidable and where almost every major decision creates political winners and losers.
His first weeks in office have already demonstrated the challenge.
Burnham has attempted to move quickly, announcing policies designed to show that his government is different from the previous administration. Among the measures associated with his early premiership are a £2 bus fare cap, changes affecting energy costs and a greater emphasis on transferring powers away from Westminster.
These policies have helped establish a distinctive identity, but voters will eventually judge the government on whether those promises produce tangible improvements in their daily lives.
That is where the pressure begins.
A Prime Minister can announce cheaper bus fares, but voters also care about whether wages are rising, whether public services are improving, whether their mortgage or rent is affordable and whether the tax burden is sustainable. They want to know whether the government has a credible plan for economic growth.
Burnham’s political problem is that expectations may now be unusually high.
He entered office promising a new beginning after a period of deep public frustration with Westminster. That creates a powerful contrast with Starmer, but it also creates a danger. The stronger the promise of change, the greater the disappointment if voters do not see results quickly.
The latest polling should therefore be viewed as an early warning rather than a disaster.
There are already signs that voters remain uncertain about Burnham’s national political project. Recent research found that only 23 per cent of people believe he will govern in the interests of the whole country, while just 22 per cent expect to be better off under his leadership.
Those figures reveal a crucial distinction between liking a politician and trusting that politician to govern effectively.
Burnham has spent years developing a strong personal reputation in Greater Manchester. His popularity there has been linked to his visibility, communication style and record of regional policies. But Britain is much more complicated than Greater Manchester.
As Prime Minister, Burnham must appeal to voters in London, the Midlands, the North, Scotland, Wales and the South of England. He must also persuade people who did not vote Labour, including Conservative and Reform supporters.
That is a much harder political challenge.
One of the most encouraging developments for Labour has been its improvement in national voting intention. Recent polls have shown Labour moving ahead of Reform UK after a period in which Reform had dominated the national political conversation. An Ipsos poll conducted in early August gave Labour a three-point advantage over Reform.
Another recent poll showed Labour continuing to hold a narrow lead, suggesting that the early Burnham effect has not disappeared despite the movement in his personal approval rating.
This creates an interesting contrast.
Burnham’s personal rating may be slipping, but Labour’s electoral position remains considerably stronger than it was under Starmer. The Prime Minister can therefore take some comfort from the fact that voters have not necessarily abandoned his party.
Yet Reform UK remains a serious threat.
Nigel Farage’s party continues to attract substantial support, particularly among voters who feel that the political establishment has ignored concerns about immigration, taxation and public services. Reform’s national support means that Burnham cannot simply rely on traditional Labour voters returning to the party.
He must win them back.
The battle for former Labour voters could be particularly important in the so-called Red Wall. Recent reporting from Barnsley suggested that some voters who previously abandoned Labour for Reform are beginning to reconsider their choices under Burnham.
That is potentially good news for Labour, but it also demonstrates how fragile the party’s support can be.
Many of these voters are not returning because they have suddenly embraced every Labour policy. They are interested in whether Burnham appears more credible, more connected to ordinary people and more capable of addressing issues such as the cost of living, immigration and public services.
If he fails to deliver, those voters could easily move again.
The Prime Minister therefore faces a difficult balancing act.
He must satisfy Labour’s traditional supporters without frightening moderate voters. He must respond to Reform’s challenge without simply copying Reform’s policies. He must maintain support for public services while demonstrating control over government spending.
And he must do all this while the British economy remains under considerable pressure.
The economy may ultimately determine whether the Burnham bounce survives.
Political popularity is often closely connected to people’s personal economic experiences. If employment rises, wages increase and household finances improve, voters may become more willing to give the government credit. If taxes rise while living standards remain stagnant, public support could deteriorate rapidly.
Burnham’s promise of economic renewal will therefore face its biggest test outside Westminster—in people’s homes, workplaces and local communities.
There is another major challenge: expectations.
Burnham’s leadership change has generated significant media attention. His personal style has made him more visible than his predecessor, and his government has attempted to announce a large number of policies quickly. Lord Ashcroft’s polling analysis described the early period as a “blizzard of plans and policies”, noting that Burnham appeared to have changed the political atmosphere remarkably quickly.
But announcing policies is easier than implementing them.
The more promises Burnham makes, the more opportunities there are for opponents to accuse him of failing to deliver. A government that moves too slowly can look weak; a government that moves too quickly can make mistakes.
The Prime Minister must therefore decide which promises matter most and focus political capital on delivering them successfully.
His handling of difficult issues will be particularly important.
The government is already confronting controversies over prisons and early prisoner releases, with probation officers warning about excessive workloads and public concern over the possibility of serious offenders being released. Burnham has responded by ordering changes to the policy and exploring ways to create additional prison capacity.
At the same time, he faces difficult choices over North Sea oil and gas projects, with environmental groups demanding that the government reject new fossil-fuel developments. More than 200 musicians have publicly urged Burnham to reject the Rosebank oilfield.
These disputes illustrate the fundamental problem of governing.
The Prime Minister cannot simply choose the most popular position in every individual debate. He has to consider competing interests, legal constraints, economic consequences and long-term national strategy.
That can quickly erode the popularity that brought him into office.
Burnham’s current position is therefore best described as promising but vulnerable.
He remains significantly more popular than many recent British political leaders, and Labour has recovered ground in national polling. The public has not rejected his leadership. In fact, other polling suggests that many voters remain open to a Labour government under Burnham. Ipsos found that 48 per cent preferred a Labour government led by Burnham at the next general election, compared with 29 per cent for Reform under Farage.
But those figures should not encourage complacency.
A Prime Minister can move from popular to unpopular remarkably quickly. Britain’s recent political history provides plenty of examples. Leaders who initially enjoy strong approval can face rapidly changing public opinion once economic difficulties, scandals or controversial policies dominate the news.
Burnham’s greatest challenge will therefore be to turn personal popularity into durable political trust.
He needs voters to believe not merely that he is likeable, but that he understands the country’s problems and has credible answers. They need to see that his promises are financially realistic and that his government can actually deliver them.
The latest five-point fall in approval may therefore be less important than what happens next.
If Burnham’s rating stabilises around its current level while Labour maintains its polling advantage, the setback may quickly become a footnote. But if approval continues to decline while Reform recovers, the political interpretation will become much more serious.
For now, the message from voters appears mixed.
They are willing to give Burnham a chance, but they are not offering him unlimited patience.
His early popularity was built on the promise of change. The next stage of his premiership will depend on whether that promise can be converted into results.
The honeymoon may be ending, but the real test is only beginning.
Andy Burnham has already demonstrated that he can attract attention, change the political mood and reconnect some voters with Labour. Now he must demonstrate something much harder: that he can govern effectively when every decision involves a trade-off.
The latest poll is a warning, not a verdict.
But for a Prime Minister who arrived in Downing Street promising to restore hope, it is a warning that should not be ignored.