Blow to Andy Burnham as New PM’s Popularity Takes a Hit in New Poll
Andy Burnham’s arrival at Downing Street was initially accompanied by a wave of political optimism. After replacing Keir Starmer as Labour leader and becoming Britain’s new prime minister, Burnham appeared to enjoy the kind of early momentum that many politicians can only dream of. His energetic first weeks in office, combined with promises to tackle the cost of living and rebuild confidence in government, helped create what commentators quickly described as the “Burnham bounce.” However, the latest polling suggests that the new prime minister may already be discovering how difficult it is to turn an initial surge of public interest into lasting popularity.
The political picture surrounding Burnham is complicated. On the one hand, several polls have shown that his personal standing is considerably stronger than that of many recent British prime ministers when they first entered Downing Street. On the other hand, there are clear signs that voters remain uncertain about whether his government can deliver on its promises. An Ipsos poll conducted in early August found that Burnham’s first approval rating as prime minister was only 29%, while around four in ten respondents were unable to say whether they were satisfied with the job he was doing.
That uncertainty is particularly important because Burnham’s political strategy has depended heavily on creating a sense of immediate change. Rather than beginning his premiership with warnings about difficult economic decisions, he has sought to present himself as a practical prime minister who understands the everyday pressures facing households. His early programme included measures such as a £2 cap on bus fares and proposals to remove VAT from domestic energy bills. He has also promised a broader ten-year economic strategy for the country.
These policies have helped Labour recover some of the political ground it had lost. Recent polling has shown the party moving ahead of Reform UK in some surveys, suggesting that Burnham has succeeded in changing the political conversation. Ipsos reported that Labour held a three-point lead over Reform in a poll conducted between July 30 and August 4, its strongest position in that pollster’s surveys for more than a year.
Yet Labour’s improved position does not automatically translate into personal support for Burnham. This distinction may become one of the defining features of his premiership. Voters can be willing to give Labour another chance without necessarily becoming enthusiastic supporters of its new leader. For Burnham, that creates a difficult challenge: he must persuade people not only that Labour has changed, but also that he personally can provide competent and credible leadership over the long term.
The contrast with earlier polling is revealing. YouGov’s first favourability survey after Burnham became prime minister found that 38% of Britons viewed him favourably, while 35% had an unfavourable opinion, giving him a net rating of plus three. That made him the most popular new prime minister since Theresa May at the equivalent stage of their premierships. He was also considerably better placed than Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss when they entered Downing Street.
This apparent contradiction — strong favourability in one poll but a relatively weak approval rating in another — demonstrates why individual surveys must be treated cautiously. Different pollsters ask different questions, use different methodologies and measure different aspects of public opinion. Favourability is not necessarily the same thing as satisfaction with a prime minister’s performance. A voter may have a positive personal impression of Burnham while still being unsure whether his government is succeeding.
Nevertheless, the latest figures should provide a warning to Downing Street. Political honeymoon periods are often short. When a new leader takes office, voters may initially respond positively simply because they represent a change from an unpopular predecessor. The real test comes when the government has to make unpopular decisions, confront economic pressures and respond to events it cannot control.
Burnham is already facing several such challenges. Britain’s economy remains fragile, with the labour market showing signs of weakness. Official figures released in July showed unemployment at 4.9%, while youth unemployment had reached 16.4%, its highest level since 2014. Wage growth had also slowed, indicating that households and businesses were still operating in an uncertain economic environment.
The cost of living is therefore likely to remain central to Burnham’s political fortunes. His early announcements have been designed to demonstrate that government can make a direct difference to household budgets. However, the danger is that expectations may rise faster than the government can deliver. A £2 bus fare or a reduction in energy costs may be welcomed by voters, but such policies cannot by themselves resolve Britain’s deeper problems of weak productivity, high housing costs, strained public services and sluggish economic growth.
There are also questions about how Burnham intends to finance some of his promises. Critics have pointed to uncertainty surrounding the funding of measures such as energy bill reductions and transport subsidies. The government has argued that savings and future reforms can help finance its programme, but opposition parties have questioned whether the sums involved are sufficiently secure.
This is where Burnham’s political communication will become crucial. His strength has traditionally been his ability to connect with voters in a direct and emotionally engaging way. As mayor of Greater Manchester, he developed a reputation for championing regional government, public transport and policies aimed at reducing inequality. His national campaign has attempted to bring that same style to Downing Street.
There are signs that it is working, particularly among voters who had become disillusioned with Labour under Starmer. Earlier MRP polling suggested that Labour’s support increased significantly after Burnham became leader, reaching 26% compared with 23% for Reform UK. The same research indicated that some Green and Liberal Democrat voters were returning to Labour.
However, the same polling also highlighted the limits of the bounce. More than half of respondents could not identify specific Burnham policies beyond the most widely publicised cost-of-living measures. That suggests that many voters may recognise the new prime minister without yet having a clear understanding of what his government stands for.
This could become a serious problem as the novelty of Burnham’s premiership fades. A government cannot rely indefinitely on announcements and political theatre. Eventually, voters judge leaders by results: whether public services improve, whether living standards rise, whether the economy grows and whether the government appears capable of dealing with major national problems.
Burnham also faces a particularly strong challenge from Reform UK. Although some polls have shown Labour moving ahead, Reform remains a major political force. Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have weakened significantly in some recent surveys, creating an opportunity for Labour, but there is no guarantee that Burnham will permanently absorb Reform’s support. Indeed, earlier polling suggested that Burnham was much more successful at attracting progressive voters from the Greens and Liberal Democrats than he was at winning Reform voters directly.
That distinction could shape the next stage of British politics. Burnham may have found a way to reunite parts of the centre-left electorate, but Labour still needs to convince voters who moved towards Reform because of concerns about immigration, taxation, crime and national identity. Appealing to those voters without alienating Labour’s progressive base will be one of the hardest balancing acts of his premiership.
The prime minister’s handling of crime and prisons will also be closely watched. His decision to pause a controversial early-release scheme after public criticism demonstrated a willingness to respond quickly to public pressure. Yet such decisions also expose the political tension between Labour’s traditional concerns about rehabilitation and social justice and voters’ demands for tougher action on crime.
For Burnham, the central lesson from the latest polling is therefore not necessarily that his popularity has collapsed. It is that his honeymoon cannot be taken for granted. His overall position remains stronger than that of many recent prime ministers, and several polls continue to show encouraging signs for Labour. Freshwater Strategy polling conducted in early August, for example, recorded Burnham with 42% favourable and 30% unfavourable ratings, giving him a positive net score of 12.
The apparent weakness in another poll should therefore be viewed as a warning rather than a political disaster. Burnham is still in the early stages of his premiership, and public opinion can change rapidly. The important question is whether he can convert personal recognition and initial enthusiasm into sustained trust.
Ultimately, Burnham’s greatest political advantage may also be his greatest vulnerability. He entered Downing Street promising change, energy and practical action. That has helped distinguish him from the previous government and given Labour renewed hope. But once a leader promises that government can make people’s lives better, voters naturally expect visible results.
The coming months will reveal whether the “Burnham bounce” was the beginning of a genuine political realignment or simply the temporary excitement that accompanies a new prime minister. For now, the polling sends a clear message: Andy Burnham has started strongly, but Britain’s voters are not yet convinced. His popularity remains competitive, Labour has regained some momentum, and his opponents are facing their own difficulties. Yet the public is already asking the most important question for any new government — not whether the prime minister is different, but whether he can actually deliver.
For Burnham, that may prove to be the real test of his premiership. The headlines of his first weeks were dominated by bold announcements and political optimism. The headlines of the months ahead are likely to be determined by whether those promises survive contact with economic reality, public expectations and the unforgiving judgement of British voters.