Nigel Farage was hotly tipped to take the keys of No 10, but the tables appear to have turned to the Tory leader’s advantage
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s fortunes have transformed (Image: Getty)
Leading bookmakers now have Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch as the new favourite to become the UK’s next prime minister, replacing Nigel Farage. It suggests punters taking a flutter on the outcome of the next general election are putting their money on Mrs Badenoch, after months of believing the Reform UK leader was a shoo-in to take over in No 10.
Mrs Badenoch has won praise from Conservative colleagues and media commentators for her performance at Westminster, including putting former Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on the spot each week at Prime Minister’s Questions. However, it was unclear whether this would translate into a rise in support for the Tories among voters, as opinion polls repeatedly put Mr Farage’s party in the lead.
William Hill is now offering odds of 3/1 that Mrs Badenoch will be the next UK prime minister.
The Conservative leader was 5/1 only days ago, but her odds have steadily shortened – moving her ahead of Mr Farage, who has eased from 9/4 out to 7/2, having previously headed the betting.
Mrs Badenoch is odds of 2/7 on to still be Tory leader at the next election, compared to Mr Farage at 4/6 to still be in charge of Reform UK – a dramatic change from as short as 1/20 about him still being in charge a year ago.
William Hill spokesman Lee Phelps said: “Kemi Badenoch has moved clear at the head of our next prime minister market, and at 3/1 she is now seen as a more likely candidate to move into Downing Street than Nigel Farage.
“The Conservatives and Reform are currently very closely matched in our most-seats betting, but Badenoch’s 2/7 quote to still be Tory leader at the next general election, compared to 4/6 for Farage at Reform, suggests punters have more faith in her long-term grip on the job.
“The fact Farage is now 6/4 to be replaced as Reform leader in 2026 – having once been 1/20 to survive through to the election – shows just how much momentum has shifted over the past year.”
Mrs Badenoch has said she is willing to talk to Prime Minister Andy Burnham about working together to end the crisis in social care.
But she has written to the Prime Minister to challenge him to rule out tax rises or increased borrowing to pay for social care reform.
In his first speech as Labour leader earlier this month, Mr Burnham namechecked social care as an issue long neglected and that we must “have the courage to fix”.
Under Sir Keir, a commission into social care – headed by Baroness Casey – was announced in early January 2025, and formally began a few months later in April.
While its first report, with short-term recommendations, is expected this autumn, the second phase, which makes long-term recommendations for the sector, is due to report by 2028.
But speaking to a committee of MPs last month, Baroness Casey indicated the overall work might be completed sooner.
Asked by the Health and Social Care Committee if she would be able to expedite the process if that was something Mr Burnham wanted, she said: “Yes.”
Baroness Casey has previously noted there have been no fewer than 22 attempts since 1997 at reforming the sector, none of which she said had “fixed the foundations”.
She also told MPs her interim report will suggest some “quite big” changes to a system she has described as “patched together” and which too often creates “agony and uncertainty” for people at the most vulnerable points in their lives.