Reform sweeps to victory in four by-election wins – with first ever gain in Scotland. hyn

Reform UK has swept to victory in yet more council by-elections overnight, taking four new seats from opposition parties including their first ever gain in Scotland. The victory north of the border was announced this lunchtime, as Nigel Farage’s surging party snatched first place against both Labour and the SNP in West Lothian.

Reform won 32% of the vote, having not stood last time the seat was fought in 2022, as Labour and the SNP both tanked. Labour, who held the Whitburn and Blackburn ward previously, dropped to just 17.1% support and shed 20.3 points. While the SNP, who came second, lost 10.7 points and dropped to 28%. Mr Farage described it as a “fantastic victory… in a seat we were not expected to win.”

In other by-elections results announced overnight, Reform won the seat of Belmont (South Kesteven) near Grantham from local independents, pipping the tories by 0.3 points.

They took 33.4% in the election, from a standing start having not stood last time in 2023. In a neighbouring ward of Aveland, also in South Kesteven, Reform won a more commanding victory, taking a seat from the Tories with a swing of 3.8%. Reform won 41% of the vote, gaining 26.5 points, while the Tories also put on a strong showing with 39.5%, gaining 19 points. The previous LibDem incumbents did not stand.

Lastly Reform won a major gain in the Red Hall & Lingfield ward in Darlington, storming to victory against Labour.

Mr Farage’s party took 37.7% from a standing start, while Labour crashed by an almost identical amount of 37.1 points.

The Tories came a distant second with 17.3%, but also fell by a sizeable 22.5 points in support.

In some rare good news for Ms Badenoch’s party, the Tories held a seat in the nearby ward of Eaglescliffe West in Stockton-on-Tees council.

The Tories secured an impressive 60.9% of the vote, gaining 4.4 points on last time the seat was fought in 2023.

While Reform gained 17.6 points, securing 24% of the vote, they were well behind.

However Labour crashed again in the red wall, losing 21.7 points of their support in just two years.

Yesterday evening Reform UK chairman Dr David Bull pointed out that since the May elections earlier this year, his party has won more by-elections than the Tories, Labour and Greens combined.

He said it’s proof that not only is the party polling well nationally, “we’re actually turning those polls into real results”.

He added: “There is no doubt that Britain wants Reform.”

The latest series of by-election victories has intensified the debate over whether Reform UK is experiencing a temporary surge or a deeper realignment of British politics. The party’s success across different regions, from Scotland to the traditional Conservative heartlands of England, has raised fresh questions about the future of the country’s established political parties.

For Nigel Farage and his supporters, the results represent proof that public frustration is no longer limited to opinion polls. They argue that voters are actively choosing Reform when given the opportunity at the ballot box, particularly in areas where traditional parties once enjoyed strong support.

Reform’s message has focused heavily on issues such as immigration, the cost of living, taxation, public services and concerns about trust in political institutions. The party argues that many voters feel ignored by Westminster and are looking for an alternative to what they describe as a failing political establishment.

The victory in Scotland is particularly significant for Reform. Historically, Scottish politics has been dominated by the SNP, Labour and the Conservatives, with smaller parties struggling to break through. Reform’s success in West Lothian suggests that dissatisfaction with mainstream parties may be creating opportunities beyond its traditional support base in England.

However, opponents argue that by-election results should be treated cautiously. Local contests can be influenced by specific circumstances, including candidate popularity, turnout levels and dissatisfaction with individual councils. A strong performance in a handful of wards does not automatically guarantee success at a general election.

Labour faces one of the biggest challenges from Reform’s rise. The party’s losses in areas such as Darlington highlight concerns that some working-class voters who previously supported Labour are now attracted to Farage’s message. These voters have often expressed concerns about immigration, economic insecurity and the feeling that politicians no longer represent ordinary communities.

For Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Government, the pressure comes at a difficult moment. The party entered office promising economic improvement and national renewal, but has faced criticism over taxation, public spending and migration policy. Reform’s growth provides opposition parties with an argument that Labour has failed to deliver the change voters expected.

The Conservatives also face a serious challenge. While Kemi Badenoch’s party managed to hold some seats and perform strongly in areas such as Stockton-on-Tees, Reform’s ability to attract right-leaning voters threatens the Conservatives’ traditional electoral coalition.

Many Conservative strategists believe the party must decide whether to compete directly with Reform on issues such as immigration and national identity or attempt to distinguish itself through economic policy and long-term governance experience.

Nigel Farage has argued that Reform represents more than a protest movement. He claims the party is becoming a genuine national force capable of replacing the old Conservative-Labour competition. Supporters point to membership growth, polling numbers and local election victories as evidence that a major political transformation is underway.

Critics, however, question whether Reform can translate enthusiasm into a sustainable governing platform. Winning individual council seats requires a different strategy from winning hundreds of parliamentary constituencies. The party will need a broader organisation, experienced candidates and detailed policies across areas such as healthcare, defence, education and the economy.

The results nevertheless send a clear warning to the established parties: a significant number of voters are willing to break with traditional loyalties. The political landscape that dominated Britain for much of the twentieth century is becoming increasingly fragmented, with smaller parties gaining influence and voters showing greater willingness to change allegiance.

As the next general election approaches, Reform UK’s challenge will be to maintain momentum and convince voters that it is not simply a vehicle for dissatisfaction but a credible alternative government. Labour and the Conservatives, meanwhile, must find ways to reconnect with voters who feel abandoned or frustrated.

The by-election victories may represent only a snapshot of public opinion, but their political impact is already significant. Reform has demonstrated that it can win seats, defeat established parties and reshape political conversations across Britain. Whether this marks the beginning of a permanent shift or a temporary wave will be one of the biggest questions in British politics over the coming years.